Natixis Cuts Gold Target to $4,100 by Year-End

Natixis cuts its gold forecast from $5,000 to $4,100: oil, yields, and Fed hikes weigh. Three scenarios from $3,500 to $5,250.

Natixis Cuts Gold Target to $4,100 by Year-End

Natixis Cuts Gold Target to $4,100: Oil and Rates Weigh

Key Takeaways

  • Natixis lowers its year-end gold target from $5,000 to $4,100 per ounce.
  • Oil prices, high yields, and fear of another Fed hike are the triggers.
  • Gold ETFs keep seeing inflows despite falling prices, which Natixis calls a historically rare divergence.

Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah is revising his gold forecast down by almost $900. According to Kitco, the French bank now expects $4,100 per ounce (XAU) at the end of 2026. In late August, the target stood at $5,000. On Wednesday morning, gold trades around $4,222 according to our market data.

Why Oil Flips the Gold Narrative

Natixis says gold has once again developed a negative correlation with oil. When crude rises, inflation fears grow, and higher rate expectations weigh on the non-yielding metal. The pattern was visible at the start of the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran and broke down after diplomatic progress in June. It has been working again since late August, as IndexBox summarizes the analysis.

Stronger Treasury yields and a firmer U.S. dollar (DXY) add to the pressure. In its base case, Natixis expects the Fed to weigh another rate hike in December. Only in 2027 should gold stabilize at around $4,750, once de-dollarization regains momentum.

Three Scenarios Between $3,500 and $5,250

The Strait of Hormuz is the deciding factor. In the bear case, a Middle East escalation closes the waterway. Persistent inflation and higher rates would follow, and central banks would turn from buyers into sellers. Natixis puts gold at $3,500 in that scenario.

In the bull case, conditions in the strait normalize, oil collapses, and the Fed steps back from tightening. The bank then sees gold above $5,250. The $4,100 base case sits between the two.

Weak Data Helps Short Term, the Fed Caps the Long Term

In the short term, weak U.S. data gives gold a tailwind. Kitco reports that the Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 81.9 in September, against an expected 89.2. The metal jumped 1.36 percent to a session high of $4,171.

For investors, the picture stays split. ETF inflows show that demand has not disappeared. At the same time, the price depends on two factors gold can hardly influence: the path of oil and the Fed's December decision. As long as the Strait of Hormuz stays open and oil keeps falling, the bull case has room. If either breaks, the $4,100 mark moves closer.