Gold falls below $4,000: rate fears, losing streak
Gold ends the week at $3,885: yields rise, Fed hike priced in, longest losing streak since 1989. Key levels and momentum.
Key Takeaways
- Gold ends the week near $3,885 an ounce, down 3.5 to 4.5 percent.
- The metal has shed about $290 since Tuesday, and the $4,000 mark has broken.
- Markets price an 89 percent chance of a 25-basis-point Fed hike in December.
Gold closes the trading week deep in the red. Spot gold trades near $3,884 on Friday evening, and silver briefly slips below $50. The weekly loss depends on the measuring point: the London fix is down 3.5 percent, the spot price 4.5 percent.
Rate fears push gold below $4,000
The trigger is the rates market. According to BullionVault, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries rises to 5.13 percent, up 0.27 percentage points in a week and the steepest weekly gain since April 2025. The inflation-adjusted yield climbs 0.24 points to 2.87 percent. For gold, which pays no interest, holding it becomes more expensive.
Inflation data adds to the pressure. Producer prices rose 0.3 percent month on month in October, less than expected, but Kitco reports annual producer inflation at 6.5 percent, the highest since November 2022. Consumer prices had already come in hotter than forecast on Tuesday. Several Fed officials have also floated a 50-basis-point move. The dollar stands at its highest since April 2025.
Kitco analyst Carsten Fritsch warns that ETF investors could sell into the weakness, which would push prices lower still. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank sees the chart damaged after the break below $4,000, but points to central bank buying that should cushion a deeper correction.
The longest losing streak since 1989
Adrian Ash of BullionVault puts the week in historical context: gold has closed lower in ten of the past twelve weeks. That last happened in 1989, when it was eleven of twelve. The London fix for the week-end stands near $3,890, the lowest since early October 2025. Silver lost 3.8 percent and trades more than 50 percent below its January record.
Neil Welsh of Britannia Global Markets sees the path of real yields as decisive. Gold needs confidence that they are close to a peak. Philip Streible of Blue Line Futures reads the producer prices differently, as a sign that inflation has peaked, and calls a 50-basis-point hike in December unrealistic.
What momentum says
The momentum signals a clear picture for gold (XAU) at $3,887.60: the 4-hour, 1-day and 1-week timeframes are bearish, the 1-hour timeframe is neutral. The daily score stands at −0.34. The short-term floor after Thursday's selloff has not changed the broader trend so far.
Scenarios
If gold falls below support at $3,852, Kitco sees the path opening toward $3,823 and on toward $3,800. That level is the 50 percent retracement of the two-year rally, as Neil Welsh points out.
If a recovery instead pushes above $3,903 to $3,911, the zone around $3,934 comes into focus. $4,000 remains the bigger hurdle.
Key dates in the new week are US retail sales on Tuesday and the Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday, which some analysts say could sound hawkish.