Bitcoin Below $80,000: Rebound After PPI Shock
Bitcoin briefly falls below $80,000 and rebounds to $82,500. PPI at 6.3 percent, Fed rate-hike fears, $84,000 as next level.
Key Takeaways
- BTC dipped to about $79,800 on Thursday and turned back to $82,500 within two hours.
- A hot producer price reading (PPI at 6.3 percent) revived fears of rate hikes.
- The $84,000 zone is now the key level, along with remarks from Fed Chair Warsh.
Anyone who only looked at Thursday's low missed half the story. Bitcoin broke below $80,000 only briefly. Buyers were waiting, and on Friday morning BTC trades near $82,000.
A dip that doesn't last
The drop came with the data, the recovery with Asia's stock markets. CoinDesk describes how the price jumped back to about $82,500 within two hours of the low and stayed above $81,000 during Asian trading. Equities turned higher at the same time: Seoul's Kospi gained almost 3 percent after closing the day before at its lowest level since April, and Samsung and SK Hynix each rose more than 2 percent.
Altcoins were mixed. Zcash (ZEC) stood out with a gain of about 8 percent to roughly $1,190, while Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL) and XRP moved up only about 1 percent. Our price data shows ETH currently near $2,445.
Why inflation keeps pulling on Bitcoin
Behind the sell-off is a surprise from the US Labor Department. According to BTC-ECHO, producer price inflation climbed to 6.3 percent in September, while economists had expected 5.3 percent. The core rate came in at 5.0 instead of 4.4 percent. Brent around $105 a barrel and the Iran war keep cost pressure high.
The market does not price a turning point yet, but a higher risk: futures markets see a rate hike at the end of October with a probability of just over 27 percent. Bond markets fit the picture. Ten-year Treasuries yield just over 5 percent, which makes Bitcoin, with no interest income, less attractive.
On Friday, attention turns to Bangkok. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the IMF and World Bank meetings. His tone on inflation could set the range BTC trades in over the coming days.
What momentum says
Our momentum snapshot for BTC at $82,208 shows a mixed picture. On the hourly timeframe, momentum signals bullish, and so it does on the weekly. On the 4-hour and daily timeframes it signals bearish. The short-term rebound therefore runs against broader downward pressure on the daily chart.
Scenarios
If BTC holds the zone around $80,000 and clears the $84,000 mark, that points to real demand, according to CoinDesk. Thursday's pullback would then have been a test that was passed.
If the price fails at $84,000 again and falls below the daily low of about $79,800, the dip becomes a pattern: every rebound gets sold as long as inflation and yields stay high.
If the price stays between $80,000 and $84,000, Warsh's remarks and the next inflation data decide the breakout.