ASML Lifts Outlook: AI Demand Outruns Production
ASML: record €11.66B revenue, €12.95 EPS, outlook raised. Customers request capacity through 2030.
Key Takeaways
- ASML expects Q4 revenue of €14.2 to €15.2 billion, more than the market had pencilled in.
- Earnings per share came in at €12.95 versus the expected €10.69.
- Order requests stretch to 2030, while 2027 and 2028 output stays too tight.
Anyone building chip fabs has to go through ASML, and customers are ordering far ahead. On Wednesday morning the company from Veldhoven in the Netherlands presented its numbers: record third-quarter revenue of €11.66 billion, sharply higher profit, a raised outlook. Even so, the stock slipped 2.68 percent early on Tradegate.
Orders for 2030: Demand is outrunning production
At the center is an assessment from CEO Christophe Fouquet. His customers are planning their equipment needs ever more generously because they rate the size and duration of AI investment higher. Some want to secure deliveries for 2029 and 2030 already. The supply currently planned for 2027 and 2028 will not be enough.
ASML is therefore weighing more capacity for 2028, beyond the 30 percent growth already announced. NL Times points to the company's special position: for the most advanced AI chips, there is currently no second machine supplier.
The numbers in detail
According to Finanzmarktwelt, revenue fell just short of the consensus mark of €11.7 billion. A year ago it was €7.52 billion. On earnings per share, ASML's €12.95 is far ahead of the €10.69 forecast. Net income is €4.96 billion, per NL Times.
Gross margin rose to 57.5 percent versus an expected 56.1 percent. The service business on the installed base of machines contributed €3.3 billion. For the final quarter ASML expects a margin of about 57 percent. The year should end at €44 to €45 billion in revenue; the previous range was €43 to €45 billion. For Q4, the market had been at roughly €13.97 billion.
High expectations as a brake
Finanzmarktwelt reads the share price decline as evidence of the high growth demands placed on the sector. When a record is expected, a hair's-breadth revenue miss is enough for investors to take profits.
The backdrop is tense. On Tuesday a report from Chinese memory maker CXMT weighed on chip stocks, and Broadcom CEO Hock Tan spoke of a casino mood among AI investors. ASML's comments on its order book push back: they describe planning over years, not day-to-day sentiment.
What momentum says
Momentum signals a bullish state for ASML on the daily chart and a neutral one on the weekly chart. There is no data for 1h and 4h on stocks. The price at the time of capture on October 14 was 1,705.35. This is a snapshot, not a recommendation.