Robinhood, Crypto.com and the $1.7B Bet
Robinhood is in talks with Crypto.com over prediction markets. Bernstein lifted its target to $160, seeing $1.7B in revenue by 2028.
The Next Billion-Dollar Lane
Robinhood is in talks with Crypto.com to fold prediction markets into its app, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing people familiar with the discussions. The plan would pipe Crypto.com's "yes or no" event contracts straight into Robinhood: wagers on the outcome of specific events, from elections to sports to macro prints.
The broker is no stranger here. It launched its event-contract marketplace in March 2025, first through Kalshi, then adding ForecastEx and Rotella. Crypto.com would be the fourth partner: more contracts, more volume, wider coverage. The scramble for this turf has turned fierce since Kalshi and Polymarket dragged prediction trading out of the fringe.
Bernstein Does the Math
The talks land the same week Bernstein raised its Robinhood price target from $130 to $160, pinning the upgrade on prediction markets and tokenized equities. Its call: revenue from the betting business alone could reach $1.7 billion by 2028. Back in April, Bernstein floated that segment volume could hit $1 trillion by 2030.
For Robinhood, this is more than a sideline. Prediction markets bring high trade frequency, recurring fees and the young, mobile-first cohort the broker already owns. Bolting on a crypto exchange extends its reach deeper into exactly that audience. It also fits Robinhood's playbook of stacking high-margin add-ons onto the core brokerage, from crypto trading to tokenized stocks.
Regulation Is the Catch
The legal flank stays open. The CFTC claims sole jurisdiction over event contracts, while gambling regulators in several states are suing to curb or ban them outright. Whether a bet on an outcome is a financial product or gambling is still unsettled.
For the stock, that matters. The $1.7 billion is a 2028 promise, not today's revenue. Buying HOOD on the Bernstein target means buying the assumption that Washington lets prediction markets run. Until the CFTC and the states finish drawing the lines, the upside stays as large as the legal risk. A Crypto.com deal would broaden the bet without shrinking the regulatory one.