Bitcoin Price: Bearish 4h Setup After Binance Hack
Bitcoin at $77,500: Trading Edge Pro flags a bearish 4h setup. Binance hack and ETF outflows in focus. Not investment advice.
Key Takeaways
- Our Trading Edge Pro indicator has flagged a new bearish setup on the 4-hour chart.
- Momentum reads bearish on 4h and 1D and bullish on 1W; price sits around $77,500.
- The Binance hack, ETF outflows and sale plans at a Nasdaq-listed company dominate the backdrop.
Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $77,500 on Saturday afternoon. Our Trading Edge Pro indicator (SK) flagged a new setup in bearish direction on the 4-hour chart on Friday, October 30, at 16:00 UTC. It lands in a week in which, according to CryptoTicker, the price has lost roughly 3.7 percent.
What the signal means
An SK setup is a read on price structure on a specific timeframe, not a forecast. The timeframe is the length of one candle: a 4-hour candle covers four trading hours. The setup says the structure on that chart currently leans toward sellers. It does not say how far or how fast price will move. How the indicator works is explained on the Trading Edge Pro page. The basics of the states are covered under Momentum.
What momentum says
At the time of the snapshot on October 31, momentum signals neutral on the 1-hour chart, bearish on 4h, bearish on 1D and bullish on 1W. Short term and on the daily view, the trend points down; on the weekly view it stays intact. The timeframes disagree, and that is what makes the picture unclear.
The bigger picture
The trend on the higher timeframe is neutral. The daily close sits 1.8 percent above the EMA 200, the 200-day moving average many market participants watch as a trend boundary. The cushion is thin. On seasonality: in prior years October ended with an average gain of 18.11 percent, and 7 of 9 years finished in the green. The month is still running, and past patterns guarantee nothing.
For context, CryptoTicker puts the all-time high at $126,080, set on October 6, 2025; the current price is about 38 percent below it. The 30-day change stands at minus 7.6 percent.
What is happening around Bitcoin right now
The Binance hack sets the tone. According to CoinDesk, 18,270 BTC worth about $1.4 billion left one of the exchange's hot wallets on Thursday. That is more than Tesla holds (11,509 BTC) and more than twice El Salvador's reserve. Binance puts the total damage at about $6.3 billion across various crypto assets. Analytics firm TRM Labs attributes the attack with high confidence to the North Korean group TraderTraitor; Binance itself has not named a culprit.
Binance now says it has replaced 90 percent of the stolen assets. According to CoinDesk, roughly $3 billion of the loot is frozen, and withdrawals are due to resume on Sunday. That takes pressure off the situation but does not remove the unease.
The unease shows up in fund data. According to CryptoTicker, net outflows from the eleven US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $643.33 million on Friday, the largest daily outflow since June 25. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust accounted for $233.7 million, the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund for $201.0 million and the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF for $129.5 million. Four straight days of inflows came before. The Fear and Greed Index fell to 30, from 51 two days earlier. In the authors' view, a second consecutive outflow day would be the signal to watch for a trend.
CoinDesk adds a side note: Nasdaq-listed Next Technology Holding has approved selling or pledging about 5,833 BTC, worth roughly $450 million, according to the report. It cites the Binance hack, exchange security gaps and possible risks from quantum computing. Whether it happens is open.
Takeaway
A bearish 4h setup, bearish daily momentum and a bullish weekly picture: the signals show price under short-term pressure without the broader trend having turned. Entry levels, stops and target zones of the setup, as well as the momentum values for all timeframes, are available to Pro members at /preise. Not investment advice.